Another year, another season of Memphis Grizzlies basketball, and let me start by saying ...
Congratulations.
Excuse me? Congratulations?
Yes.
For?
Jason Williams retired during the off-season.
Indeed, he did. But why the congratulations?
You outlasted the man who stole your pen.
I suppose. But, honestly, I wish I had the same sense of excitement about the Grizzlies today that I had back in the J-Will era. Remember how it felt back then? Remember the TV ad he did?
You mean, the one in which he threw a garbage bag into a garbage truck behind his back?
Right. Hilarious. Even the ads were fun then. There was a spirit about the Grizzlies. People knew and liked that team. And they cared when the season started. How many care that this team's season starts tonight?
Not enough. But why bash them? Do you want to run the Grizzlies out of town?
Funny, that's the question Grizzlies owner Michael Heisley posed to my boss, Chris Peck. And what a bizarre question to ask. I wrote a wildly unpopular series of columns back during the NBA debate, urging civic leaders to build FedExForum. I went way out on a limb to try to bring the team here. Now some radio clown regularly says I hate the Grizzlies. To be clear: I hate what the Grizzlies have become. I hate that the team has an embarrassing season-ticket base. I hate that there's essentially no local ownership. I hate that there are days when the Grizzlies' story doesn't even make the front page of this section -- and nobody much complains.
So you're not fired up about the opener?
Actually, I am. I still get a kick out of the fact that there's an NBA team out there that carries this city's name. I continue to hope that something will happen to turn the franchise around. But if you care about Memphis, it's hard not to be discouraged by the current state of its only major-league team.
You don't believe in Heisley's three-year plan?
I do and I don't.
With convictions like that, you should run for president.
Well, I do believe that the best way to build a winner -- especially in a smaller market -- is through the draft.
But?
But the timing sure is lousy, isn't it? Memphis should have built through the draft eight years ago. That's when fans would have had the patience for it. Now that everyone has run out of patience, Heisley unveils his three-year plan.
But it's still the right way to do it, isn't it?
No question. That's why I was -- and remain -- a big fan of the draft-night deal for O.J. Mayo. Neither Mike Miller nor Kevin Love will ever be a great player. Mayo has a shot.
So why the continuing skepticism?
It's a hard way to build. Drafting a bunch of talented young players doesn't guarantee anything. People like to throw out the examples of San Antonio and New Orleans, but it's possible the Grizzlies are developing more along the lines of Milwaukee or Charlotte. Those teams have been trying to build with kids, too, but haven't been able to find a transcendent star. You can gather up all the high draft picks you like, but if you wind up with Andrew Bogut or Emeka Okafor instead of Tim Duncan or Chris Paul, you're not going anywhere.
How about Utah?
Utah hit on Deron Williams and added Carlos Boozer as a free agent. Which reminds me of something else. If you don't get lucky and find that one franchise guy in the draft, you have to be willing to spend some cash. New Orleans went and got Tyson Chandler. Atlanta overpaid for Joe Johnson. The Phoenix Suns were willing to pay Steve Nash when Mark Cuban was not.
The Grizzlies signed Hamed Haddadi.
Uh-huh. The pride of Iran. The Lakers might have the triangle offense, but the Grizzlies have the Axis of Evil offense.
You've been waiting a long time to use that line, haven't you?
Absolutely.
OK, so what would be the best thing that could happen this year?
One of the young players could start developing into a star. I'm not talking about a nice borderline star, I mean a serious, perennial all-star.
You're talking about Mayo?
Not necessarily, no. It could be Rudy Gay. He's easily the most athletic player on the team. He has the tools to be a star. But does he have the temperament? Can he improve his passing, his rebounding and his defense? I'm skeptical. But, then, I didn't expect Gay to improve as much as he did last year.
Will Mayo be Rookie of the Year?
It's possible, sure. But O.J. Mayo is not the lift-you-out-of-your-seat kind of physical talent that some people seem to think. After the draft, Chris Wallace kept comparing him to Chauncey Billups, and now I see why. Billups isn't a highlight-reel guy. He's a leader, a shooter and a born competitor. Mayo looks to be all of that, too.
Will Marc Iavaroni last the season as head coach?
Hard to say. Heisley told me he'd be especially patient with Iavaroni, given the youth of the team and the new emphasis on defense. But it's easy to imagine Heisley getting ticked off after an ugly loss, and that could be that.
Would Kevin O'Neill get the job?
Let's hope not. O'Neill has been on his best behavior since he's been here, but his history says he's Mike Fratello with a foul mouth. And it wasn't a mistake to fire Fratello, no matter what Heisley thinks now. That walk-it-up style is an aesthetic disaster.
Avery Johnson, then?
It's too early to speculate. And it's not fair to Iavaroni, honestly, who has done everything he's been asked. Yes, he really hurt himself last year with some horrific personnel decisions (Casey Jacobsen) and uncertain game management. But he's supposed to be developing players, right? Isn't Gay developing reasonably well?
How will Marc Gasol fare?
Within a month, he'll be the most popular Grizzlies player because of his physical style.
How about Darrell Arthur?
He'll be the starting power forward by the end of the season, if not the end of the calendar year.
Kyle Lowry?
He'll be dealt.
Hakim Warrick?
He could be dealt, too. And throw Darko Milicic in there, while you're at it. He's another who could go. The Grizzlies won't announce this or anything, but the core of the team is Gay, Mayo, Mike Conley, Gasol and Arthur. That's who they're developing for the long term. That's where the fun of this season will be. For the first time since the first few years in Memphis, wins and losses really won't be the measure of this team.
That's good, right?
It sure is. Especially since I'm figuring they'll win 21 games, or two fewer than last year. That's miserable, by any measure. But at least there won't be many people in the stands to witness it.
It's going to be bad?
Worse than bad. Awful. Depressing. Pick your dispiriting adjective. But the hope is that the kids will get better, that they'll start to knit together and develop into a team that will light this city on fire.
You think that can really happen?
Sure!
Why do you think that?
It's opening night. It's a time for optimism. And what other choice do we have?
