The Rookies and Their Fantasy Fates
The draft that nobody could wait for has become the rookie class that nobody can predict. It would be unfair to pile on Blazer fans' misery by noting that if their front office had possessed a bit more clairvoyance, they might not be watching the top pick spend the next few months on crutches. Instead, Mr. Greg Oden can serve as a harbinger: there is no way to foresee what a rookie NBA player will do with his inaugural season. Here is a pick-by-pick preview of what they might look like on paper.
1. Greg Oden (C, Blazers) – Start making room for him in the late rounds of your '08-'09 draft.
2. Kevin Durant (SG, Sonics) – Looking at Seattle's starting lineup, it's hard to say who will be drawing defensive pressure away from the Rookie of the Year favorite. The thing is, his Texas team last year had the same problem, and his stats were . . . well, they were okay. He'll be facing better defenders, but it's not a stretch to think he could average in the high teens for points with double-digit boards and a few threes thrown in. He'll also probably post great numbers in blocks and rebounds from the two-guard slot.
3. Al Horford (PF, Hawks) – If he doesn't beat out Shelden Williams as easily as his alma mater (Florida) would dispatch Williams' (Duke) on the gridiron, something is wrong. Look for him to be a double-double threat and a load inside. His maturity and championship experience should give him an easier start than many first-year men enjoy.
4. Mike Conley, Jr. (PG, Grizzlies) – He's listed as the backup for now, but he's Memphis' point guard of the future and will get the chance to prove it unless Kyle Lowry explodes. Even if Lowry plays out of his mind, Coach Marc Iavaroni spent his last few years as a Phoenix Suns assistant and will no doubt experiment with pairing the two small guards in the backcourt.
5. Jeff Green (SF, Sonics) – This might be Kevin Durant's best hope of a steady frontcourt companion and ball distributor. Playing alongside Wally Szczerbiak, though, has never been a prescription for putting up big scoring numbers.
6. Yi Jianlian (PF, Bucks) – Senator Larry Harris managed to avert an international incident by promising Yi 20-25 minutes per night in Milwaukee's crowded frontcourt. No word on whether Michael Redd and shoot-first point guard Mo Williams have promised to let the big man touch the ball. He better instruct his English tutor to start with "I'm open, you (expletive)!"
7. Corey Brewer (SG, Wolves) – He'll get minutes to use his long arms for blocks, rebounds, and steals, but it's unlikely any Minnesota coaches are under orders to run plays for him. Teammates who skipped college (Al Jefferson, Marko Jaric) or played one year (Ricky Davis) won't likely be impressed by his two NCAA championship rings, either.
8. Brandan Wright (PF, Warriors) – When you're a power forward who doesn't rebound and Don Nelson says you aren't going to play, he must really think you aren't ready. This is a coach who once inserted Manute Bol to play the top of the key and shoot 3s. Look for Brandan Wright to lead the lottery picks in butt splinters, which is great if your league counts 'em.
9. Joakim Noah (PF/C, Bulls) – He won't fight Kirk Hinrich or Ben Gordon for shots, but nobody would be surprised if he and Ben Wallace came to blows over a loose ball. Jokes about his hairdo are strictly for more lowbrow journalists.
10. Spencer Hawes (C, Kings) – If Brad Miller continues his steady decline, the minutes will be there for Hawes. Rookie big guys can coast on their size more than guards with ball-handling responsibilities, so his rebounds and blocks should be respectable.
11. Acie Law IV (PG, Hawks) – There's an opening at the one-spot, and Joe Johnson is probably ready to greet Law with a big hug for taking over some of the dribbling duties. He might not be so welcoming when Acie explains, "Hey, it's just like in college – in the last three minutes, the ball's mine, I'm a winner." Joe might end up playing the "I'm an Olympian" card and taunting Acie about last year's Elite Eight.
12. Thaddeus Young (SF, Sixers) – He's a work in progress who will make Andre Iguodala look robotic and fundamentally sound by comparison. Still, youth and energy are at a premium in Philly, where the fans need something to take their minds off the Phillies' ignominious sweep.
13. Julian Wright (SF, Hornets) – Probably won't break into the crowded line for the swing spots in New Orleans, but he's just one Peja Stojakavic season-ending injury away from starting.
14. Al Thornton (SF, LA Clippers) – Plays the same position as LA's one reliable fantasy starter, Corey Maggette. Then again, he also plays the same position as LA's second-most disgruntled player, Corey Maggette (Sam Cassell, who has never been gruntled, takes top honors). So you never know.
15. Rodney Stuckey (SG, Pistons) – By many accounts, a potential stud scorer if Rip Hamilton or Chauncey Billups goes down. This might be the year that a critical Piston actually misses some time with an injury. If so, Stuckey is well-positioned to take advantage.
16. Nick Young (SG, Wizards) – Needs to refine his shot to become an NBA 2-guard. Not that it will matter as long as Agent Zero is healthy.
17. Sean Williams (PF/C, Nets) – Should be able to find playing time in the paper-thin Nets frontcourt, and big guys who can run the floor have a good time playing with Jason Kidd. Plus, it's not as if Vince Carter or Richard Jefferson will be taking away his rebounds or blocked shots.
18. Marco Bellinelli (SG, Warriors) – He can shoot, and he wowed all viewers in the summer league. It remains to be seen whether he brings anything besides a jumper to the table.
19. Javaris Crittenton (PG, Lakers) – Point guards passing to Kobe Bryant have never racked up many assists or gotten to take many shots. And you don't get fantasy points for being better than Smush Parker.
20. Jason Smith (PF, Sixers) – There's an opening up front in Philadelphia, and Smith is reputed to be a good scorer and rebounder. Missed shots should be plentiful with a young backcourt.
21. Daequan Cook (SG, Heat) – Pat Riley doesn't play rookies, Daequan Cook is allegedly at least a year away. If only every prediction were so simple.
22. Jared Dudley (SF, Bobcats) – Every year at least one undersized rebounder makes his mark. If Dudley can be this year's Paul Millsap, he'll be one of the more valuable fantasy rookies.
23. Wilson Chandler (SF, Knicks) – The Knicks didn't need another small forward, and their coach has been a little too distracted this summer to be evaluating rookies. Maybe he was the best athlete available.
24. Rudy Fernandez (SG, Blazers) – He won't be playing for the Blazers any more than Greg Oden, but at least he'll be on the court for somebody – it'll just be in the Spanish league. Keep an eye on him next year.
25. Morris Almond (SG, Jazz) – He could start right away if his stroke is as good as advertised. Should fit into Utah's offense better than the average rookie.
26. Aaron Brooks (PG, Rockets) – He'll be backing up Steve Francis, which is not quite the death sentence it once was – one senses Steve is about two meltdowns away from wearing out his Houston-area welcome for the second time. If so, Brooks showed himself capable of assists, steals, and threes in college and summer league.
27. Arron Afflalo (SG, Pistons) – A shooting guard with an iffy shot can survive in college, but loses significant value as a pro. Afflalo's lock-down D won't win you any fantasy titles, though it may make Joe Dumars weep with nostalgia.
28. Tiago Splitter (PF, Spurs) – Worth mentioning only because serious basketball aficionados were starting to wonder if the guy even existed. He likely won't see the court this year, but look for him to carry on the Spurs' list of international coups in the near future.
29. Alando Tucker (SG, Suns) – Rookies have never gotten much time in the D'Antoni system, and even less if they aren't dead-eye shooters. At least he'll like the change in weather.
30. Petteri Koponen (PG, Blazers) – Stealing the Spurs' trick of drafting guys and stashing them overseas is one of the signs that Portland GM Kevin Pritchard is serious. This year, though, he struck out for fantasy owners. He must have other priorities.
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