Rookie Watch: Who could beat out Durant for ROY?
Even casual NBA fans know that this year's NBA Rookie of the Year race appears to be over before it starts, thanks to Greg Oden's injury coupled with Kevin Durant's golden opportunity to play a lot in Seattle.
True, even as special as Kevin Durant is, he probably wouldn't see as many minutes on an established team like Chicago or Detroit. But with the Sonics, Kevin Durant will get all the playing time and shots he can handle.
Consequently, we have a nine-horse race to "place," plus a few genuine dark horses for Kevin Durant's crown.
1. Kevin Durant, F, Seattle SuperSonics
When I first saw Kevin Durant play in November 2006, I immediately thought he looked like a hybrid of Kevin Garnett and George Gervin. Now he has a college season under his belt, and I still feel the same way.
He's a KG in that he plays with raw emotion and passion, a true throwback guy who just lives to compete and crush people, which explains his excellent rebounding and shot-blocking numbers. But he's capable of scoring in such creative ways and able to string together long and mega-productive streaks in one game (think LeBron and D-Wade in recent NBA playoff games) and in a series of games (like the Iceman).
We still don't know what position he'll inhabit for the better part of a game; the Sonics are trying him at the 2 guard, but he's a more natural forward. We do know he'll be on the court a lot. He is a likely 20 points-per-game scorer and a runaway fave to win the ROY race.
2. Luis Scola, F, Houston Rockets
Scola might be the most fortunate rookie in terms of how his talents fit with his team's style of play. Argentinean players typically are masters at moving without the ball, using excellent timing, space and pace to create easy baskets with minimal dribbling. Coach Rick Adelman's offense encourages players to do exactly that, and Yao Ming and Tracy McGrady are good passers.
Scola might have been Europe's best player last season, he's 27 years old, and he is highly motivated to play well after being frustrated by San Antonio's reluctance to bring him over.
As a probable starting power forward for a team poised for a title run, he has the best chance of beating Kevin Durant at the wire, assuming the voters will treat him as a rookie.
3. Juan Carlos Navarro, G, Memphis Grizzlies
NBA coaches are typically loathe to give rookies big minutes, but new coach Marc Iavaroni is likely to buck that tendency with Navarro, a 27-year-old sharpshooter who was the MVP of the second-best professional league in the world. Navarro plays a lot like J.J. Redick did in college -- he feels he can make any jumper.
Like most of the rookies on this list below him, he does have some good competition for playing time, namely another sharpshooter in Mike Miller (who's a lot taller) and the surprising Tarence Kinsey. But Navarro, with loads of Euroleague and international competition under his belt, projects to be the first wing off the bench on a team that plays with some serious pace, so his numbers should be solid.
4. Al Horford, F, Atlanta Hawks
On a different team, Horford easily cracks my top three, due to his NBA-ready work ethic and talent. But the Hawks already have some high draft picks that could see some time at the power forward spot (Marvin Williams, Shelden Williams and perhaps Josh Smith) and a solid center in Zaza Pachulia.
Still, Horford comes in as a big man who can help the Hawks right now on both sides of the ball. He developed a solid face-up game in college, along with an excellent jump hook. And he's a surprisingly good passer from the box and the high post. And he'll be a strong defender and rebounder right away.
5. Joakim Noah, F-C, Chicago Bulls
No college player last season was more hated by his opponent's fans, and more beloved by his own teammates. Why? In part because he played so hard, exhausting himself and totally investing his talents in the success of his teammates and his team.
Joakim Noah was the lifeblood of one of the top teams in college hoops history, and he has the exact mentality that coach Scott Skiles wants in his players. Given that and his ability to run, pass and block shots, I would not be surprised if Joakim Noah ultimately earned Chicago's starting power forward spot.
6. Al Thornton, F, Los Angeles Clippers
Thornton arrived at Florida State with the best "wheels" in college basketball, but an iffy motor that seemed to cough and gasp often, and a rather immature skill game. But he developed a relentless attacking style and a great midrange game, and he enters the Los Angeles Clippers organization as an older rookie (turns 24 in December) with tremendous confidence in his shot and the athleticism to make plays on both ends of the floor.
He may struggle to get time early but should play much more as the season unfolds (and unravels) for a likely lottery-bound team.
7. Rodney Stuckey, G, Detroit Pistons
Though he played at a little-known college (Eastern Washington) for only two years, Stuckey's skill set is quite mature. He looked great in the Vegas Summer League and appears capable of helping the Pistons as a true combo guard.
I'd have him higher on this list based on his talent, but the Pistons have other, more experienced players ahead of him as they try to make a run back to the Eastern Conference finals or beyond. Stuckey may get November minutes, so he must play well to stick in the rotation.
8. Corey Brewer, F, Minnesota Timberwolves
Brewer is a lot like Thornton in that he plays incredibly hard and is an elite athlete, but he has not yet developed a strong shooter's stroke or a scorer's feel.
He makes this list as a projected starter (in the near future) who will fill up a stat sheet. In addition, he makes a lot happen on defense and does the little things that go beyond the box score.
With an improved jumper, Brewer could finish in the top three by year's end.
9. Mike Conley Jr. , G, Memphis Grizzlies
Despite his immense talents, Conley has a few things working against him in this race.
One, he is playing the toughest position to play as a rookie: the point.
Two, second-year point guard Kyle Lowry is going to be a very good pro and needs time to develop (either towards a better Grizzlies' future or as trade bait). Additionally, Damon Stoudamire and Navarro, as noted above, will get minutes for the Grizzlies.
Still, Conley's ultra-quickness, superior handle and his strong hoops IQ will help him navigate the challenges of playing the lead guard in a fast-paced system, and I see a solid first year for him.
10. Yi Jianlian, F, Milwaukee Bucks
Any number of other players could have made this list, but the final spot goes to a player who will have a great opportunity (can you say "promise"?) to play significant minutes all season.
Yi has great size and is a capable shooter, so if he gets 20-plus minutes a night, he'll put up some decent numbers and perhaps rise up this list as the season progresses.
But the pressure to perform well will be high, as the Bucks expect to be a playoff team.
Rookies who could crack the top 10:
• Marco Belinelli, G, Golden State Warriors: His experience and skill set suggest he belongs on this list, but the plethora of options for Don Nelson on the perimeter make it hard to project success in Year 1.
• Javaris Crittenton, G, Los Angeles Lakers: Phil Jackson is trying to win now, so letting the young, inconsistent Javaris Crittenton develop through his mistakes is not likely, though the kid looks like a talent who will find a rotation spot in time.
• Morris Almond, F, Utah Jazz: He's a smart, tough, dead-eye shooter, but he's playing behind Most Improved candidate Ronnie Brewer.
• Kyrylo Fesenko, C, Utah Jazz: Seeing "Fes" is believing; he is huge and agile with a disposition bordering on too nasty -- just the type of player Jerry Sloan loves.
• Jeff Green, F, Seattle SuperSonics: Green has a solid all-around game and should see time at a few positions.
• Glen Davis, F, Boston Celtics: He has the size and skill to be in the rotation, but he must bring effort every day or coach Doc Rivers (and KG) will sit him until he learns.
Others to watch: Philadelphia 76ers forwards Thaddeus Young and Jason Smith and Atlanta Hawks guard Acie Law IV
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